What’s Your Portland Home Actually Worth?
Automated estimates average broad data and cannot see your home’s condition, construction, light, updates, or buyer appeal. I analyze comparable sales using appraiser methodology, then apply local judgment to the details that actually move value.
THE ALGORITHM TEST
In 2021, Zillow lost about $881 million trying to buy and flip homes priced by its own algorithm, then shut the program down.
So how much faith do you want to put in a Zestimate?
What happened with Zillow
Zillow used its own pricing models to buy houses, fix them up and resell them at scale. In 2021 the program lost about $881 million, and Zillow closed it, because the models could not price homes accurately enough to survive real purchases and sales.
That isn’t a knock on Zillow. It’s an honest measure of how hard valuation is: the company with the most data in the business couldn’t make its own estimate work with its own money on the line.
How I price a home instead
I price homes the way appraisers do: hand-picked comparable sales, adjusted line by line for condition, lot and systems.
Because I spent a 23-year career in structural engineering, I also look at the construction realities an algorithm can’t see: the foundation, the roof, the quality of that addition, the deferred maintenance or the over-improvement. Then I check my work against the eventual appraisal and show you the math.
The algorithms are a starting point. Your list price shouldn’t be one.
“I think he is better than most realtors at crunching numbers to assess fair market value.”
Start with the instant valuation tool
OR REQUEST A PERSONAL CMA
Questions about online home values
How accurate are the online estimates?
Each company publishes its own accuracy figures, and you can look them up. The practical test: Zillow lost about $881 million in 2021 trying to buy and flip homes on its own estimates. An automated estimate is a starting range, not a list price.
Why is my Zestimate different from my Realtor.com estimate?
Different companies use different data providers, update schedules, and algorithms, so their automated values routinely disagree. That spread is useful evidence that automated values are ranges, not defensible list prices.
What’s more accurate than an online estimate?
A comparative market analysis from a local agent (or a licensed appraisal) is more specific to the property. Nathan’s CMAs use appraiser methodology: hand-picked comparable sales, line-by-line adjustments, and direct evaluation of condition, systems, construction, and lot characteristics.